Performance of GloFAS Flood Forecasts using proxy data in Uganda

Capabilities to forecast fluvial flooding are not equality spread across the globe and forecasting systems are especially limited in flood-prone low-income countries (Revilla Romero et al., 2014). The availability of higher spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data and the increase in post processing technology have opened opportunities for fluvial forecasting at a continental and global scale (Emerton et al., 2016a) (Revilla-Romero et al., 2015). This means flood forecasts are available for regions where previously there were no forecasting capabilities. The availability of flood forecasts for flood-prone low-income countries does not directly lead to action being taken in case of flooding. The forecast based financing program of the Red Cross Climate Centre enables early action to be taken using probabilistic forecast information, with the aim of reducing the impacts of flooding (Coughlan de Perez et al 2015). The program uses a combination of forecast models including the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) and is active in multiple location including Tongo, Peru and Uganda. There are many factors at play to create an effective early warning system, including the performance of the forecast. Analysing the performance of forecasts is essential for the further improvement and development of an effective early warning system. However, in low-income countries with a low data availability this is a major challenge. This poster shows the performance of the GloFAS forecast using proxy flood event data in the North East of Uganda and poses the question: “How can the performance of forecasts be analysed when data is limited and uncertain?”

Estimating flood forecast performance using inundation data in Soroti, Uganda

This work explores the question “How can data on flood extents derived from Earth Observations (EO) be used to assess the performance of a global flood forecasting model in the ungauged catchment of the Okere and Okok Rivers in Uganda?”. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is a global hydrological forecast and monitoring system. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa the performance of GloFAS has not been assessed. GloFAS is being used in some parts of Uganda to forecast floods. Recently Africa Risk Capacity has been developing a pan-African flood model for use in underpinning parametric flood insurance. The African Flood Extent Depiction Model (AFED) is a daily depiction of temporarily flooded areas everywhere in Africa over the past 20 years. The AFED uses satellite remote sensing from microwave sensors to map floods. The AFED data set was used to assess the performance of GloFAS for two rivers in Uganda. The AFED flood data consists of a flooded fraction per pixel which ranges from 0 to 1. This is not directly comparable to the river discharges produced by the GloFAS flood forecasting model. In order to compare both datasets and assess GloFAS’s performance, the following steps were taken: Extracting the flooded fraction of the Okok and Okere Rivers. Five methods were explored: Flooded fraction of the most downstream pixel; Catchment average flooded fraction for all non-zero pixels; Maximum flooded fraction in catchment; Number of pixels that are non-zero in the catchment; Sum of flooded fraction of all the pixels in the catchment. Comparing the recorded floods derived from newspaper articles with the EO data to establish if the AFED captures the flooding of the Okok and Okere Rivers. Establishing the range of the flood fraction that signifies flooding in recorded events. Extracting flood events using the peaks of the AFED data and the range of flooding from step 3. Assessing the performance of GloFAS and calculating its skill scores using this extended flood events. Results show that AFED data successfully identifies flooding for the two rivers and can be used to assess GloFAS’s performance

A review of the understanding of uncertainty in a flood forecasting system and the available methods of dealing with it

The increased availability and application of probabilistic weather forecasts in flood forecasting means that the uncertainty arising from the precipitation forecast can be assessed. This has led to a wider interest in how uncertainty is affecting flood forecast systems. In literature there are general techniques and principles available on how to deal with uncertainty. However, there are no of well-accepted guidelines on the implementation these principles and techniques. There is neither coherent terminology nor a systematic approach which means that it is difficult and perhaps even impossible to assess the characteristics and limitations of uncertainty quantification methods. Selecting the most appropriate method to match a specific flood forecasting system is therefore a challenge. The main findings of this review are that there are remaining mathematical and theoretical challenges in uncertainty quantification methods and that this leads to the use of assumptions which in turn could lead to a misrepresentation of the predictive uncertainty

Small multi-purpose reservoir ensemble planning

People living in arid areas with highly variable rainfall, experience droughts and floods and often have insecure livelihoods. Small multi-purpose reservoirs are a widely used form of infrastructure for the provision of water. They supply water for domestic use, livestock watering, small scale irrigation, and other beneficial uses. The reservoirs are hydrologically linked by the streams that have been dammed. Although reservoirs store a large quantity of water and have a significant effect on downstream flows, they have rarely been considered as systems, with synergies and tradeoffs resulting from the number and density of their structures. Often reservoirs were constructed in a series of projects funded by different agencies, at different times, with little or no coordination among the implementing partners. A significant number are functioning sub-optimally and/or are falling into disrepair. This indicates that there is room for improvement in the planning, operation, and maintenance of small reservoirs. The water management institutions in Volta, Limpopo, and Sao Francisco Basins are being revamped to better serve their constituencies. We have an opportunity to collaborate with government officials, stakeholders, and farmers who are actively looking for ways to improve the planning process. The Small Reservoir Project team developed a tool kit to support the planning, development, and management of small reservoir ensembles on the basin level and the use of small multi-purpose reservoirs that are properly located, well designed, operated and maintained in sustainable fashion, and economically viable on the local/community level. There are tools to improve intervention planning, storage estimation and the analysis of the hydrology, ecology and health of small reservoirs. There ara also tools for the analysis of institutional and economic aspects of the reservoirs. The toolkit not only includes the necessary analytical instruments, but also a set of process oriented tools for improved participatory decision making. The Tool Kit is meant to be a living “document” with additional tools and experiences to be added as they are developed

Operational decision support system for sustainable water resource management for Sungai Selangor

The Selangor River lies on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, 70 km north of Kuala Lumpur. The Selangor catchment area is approximately 2000 km2 and has two major dams located in the upstream part of the catchment: Sungai Selangor Dam and Sungai Tinggi Dam. Lembaga Urus Air Selangor (LUAS) is the Malaysian government agency responsible for water resources management of the Selangor catchment, their main challenge being to balance an increase in water demand, whilst trying to manage the catchment’s environmental state. Key to this is the amount of water that is being released from the two reservoirs. The current manual decision-making process (based on staff experience) does not provide LUAS with the efficiency and accuracy that is required in a catchment where sustainability is key and water resources are not always abundant. A solution was required to improve the management of the current resources, thus reducing the need for the costly and environmentally contentious development of new infrastructure. The operational Decision Support System (DSS) for sustainable water resources management of the Sungai Selangor catchment is a non-structural tool developed to support LUAS in optimising the reservoir releases and water abstractions in the catchment; it is also known as LUAS Intelligent Support System (LiSS). LiSS is a fully automated system that is driven by a combination of live, telemetered gauged data from various sources including the InfoBanjir telemetry database and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) rainfall forecasts from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD). Simulations are carried out automatically on an hourly basis, to calculate and forecast whether flows at Bestari Jaya Barrage near the main abstraction location (SSP1) are being maintained at the required levels. If the required flows are not met, being either too high or too low, the model is re-run using an adjusted reservoir release time series. LiSS should also be able to help LUAS in future increase the sustainability of management of water resources in the Selangor catchment. This paper describes the approach developed to support LUAS meet this objective, in a manner that can be used in real-time, and which can be transferred to other catchments in future. The advantages and disadvantages of potentially expanding this system to use ensemble forecasts, data assimilation and optimisation algorithms are discussed, along with suggestions for further research

Biting the hand that feeds: anthropogenic drivers interactively make mosquitoes thrive

Anthropogenic stressors on the environment are increasing at unprecedented rates and include urbanization, nutrient pollution, water management, altered land use and climate change. Their effects on disease vectors are poorly understood. A series of full factorial experiments investigated how key human induced abiotic pressures, and interactions between these, affect population parameters of the cosmopolitan disease vector, Culex pipiens s.l. Selected pressures include eutrophication, salinity, mean temperature, and temperature fluctuation. Data were collected for each individual pressure and for potential interactions between eutrophication, salinization and temperature. All experiments assessed survival, time to pupation, time to emergence, sex-ratio and ovipositioning behavior. The results show that stressors affect vector survival, may speed up development and alter female to male ratio, although large differences between stressors exist to quite different extents. While positive effects of increasing levels of eutrophication on survival were consistent, negative effects of salinity on survival were only apparent at higher temperatures, thus indicating a strong interaction effect between salinization and temperature. Temperature had no independent effect on larval survival. Overall, increasing eutrophication and temperatures, and the fluctuations thereof, lowered development rate, time to pupation and time to emergence while increasing levels of salinity increased development time. Higher levels of eutrophication positively impacted egg-laying behavior; the reverse was found for salinity while no effects of temperature on egg-laying behavior were observed. Results suggest large and positive impacts of anthropogenically induced habitat alterations on mosquito population dynamics. Many of these effects are exacerbated by increasing temperatures and fluctuations therein. In a world where eutrophication and salinization are increasingly abundant, mosquitoes are likely important benefactors. Ultimately, this study illustrates the importance of including multiple and combined stressors in predictive models as well as in prevention and mitigation strategies, particularly because they resonate with possible, but yet underdeveloped action plans. NWONWA.1160.1S.210Environmental Biolog

Cryptosporidium and Giardia as Determinants for Selection of an Appropriate Source of Drinking-water in Southern Sri Lanka

Four different water sources (irrigation canals, small reservoirs, shallow wells, and tubewells), used for domestic purposes, in an irrigated area in southern Sri Lanka, were tested for Giardia spp. cysts and Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts. Identification of these parasites in water sources is important as these are increasingly recognized as causative agents of waterborne diarrhoeal disease. All the four sources of water were contaminated with cysts and oocysts. The sources of surface-water contained a greater number of protozoa compared to tubewells and shallow wells (p<0.05). The results indicate a reduction of high parasite loads by natural filtration as the water moves from canals to shallow wells through the soil profile. This could present an opportunity to reduce the burden of diarrhoeal disease due to protozoa by selecting an appropriate source of drinking-water and identifying those water sources that require treatment solutions

Flood forecasting and warning for Muar River: non-structural measures for flood mitigation

The Muar River catchment has repeatedly suffered prolonged, significant flood events which have caused widespread disruption and impacts to residents, businesses and infrastructure; the impacts have been exacerbated by considerable rapid development over the past decade, which has modified the flow regimes and flooding mechanisms. To help prepare for, and mitigate, the effects of future floods, the Malaysian government is implementing a range of flood management projects, which will provide an integrated approach based on structural and non-structural measures. The integrated Flood Forecasting and River Monitoring system (iFFRM) for the river Muar is a key non-structural measure that has been recently implemented. The government’s Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) is responsible for providing a flood forecasting and warning service to the public; the iFFRM is a tool designed to enable effective decision support by DID. The iFFRM is a fully automated system that is driven by a combination of live, telemetered gauged data from DID’s own InfoBanjir database, spatial rainfall radar data, and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) rainfall forecasts from the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Hourly simulations are carried out automatically, to forecast water levels and flows in the river channels, and to map the flood inundation process within the flood plains. Simulation results are used to warn DID staff so that immediate action can be taken to provide an effective and proactive emergency response. Results are also passed to the project website, and dedicated smartphone application, enabling forecasts to be disseminated more widely. A parallel analytical modelling network can take over the forecasting role should the primary iFFRM system fail. Ongoing structural measures for flood mitigation are captured through a flexible modelling approach that can incorporate model updates to reflect real changes in the catchment, complementing the structural measures being implemented by DID and ensuring a sustainable solution

The architecture and effect of participation: a systematic review of community participation for communicable disease control and elimination. Implications for malaria elimination

Community engagement and participation has played a critical role in successful disease control and elimination campaigns in many countries. Despite this, its benefits for malaria control and elimination are yet to be fully realized. This may be due to a limited understanding of the influences on participation in developing countries as well as inadequate investment in infrastructure and resources to support sustainable community participation. This paper reports the findings of an atypical systematic review of 60 years of literature in order to arrive at a more comprehensive awareness of the constructs of participation for communicable disease control and elimination and provide guidance for the current malaria elimination campaign.Evidence derived from quantitative research was considered both independently and collectively with qualitative research papers and case reports. All papers included in the review were systematically coded using a pre-determined qualitative coding matrix that identified influences on community participation at the individual, household, community and government/civil society levels. Colour coding was also carried out to reflect the key primary health care period in which community participation programmes originated. These processes allowed exhaustive content analysis and synthesis of data in an attempt to realize conceptual development beyond that able to be achieved by individual empirical studies or case reports.Of the 60 papers meeting the selection criteria, only four studies attempted to determine the effect of community participation on disease transmission. Due to inherent differences in their design, interventions and outcome measures, results could not be compared. However, these studies showed statistically significant reductions in disease incidence or prevalence using various forms of community participation. The use of locally selected volunteers provided with adequate training, supervision and resources are common and important elements of the success of the interventions in these studies. In addition, qualitative synthesis of all 60 papers elucidates the complex architecture of community participation for communicable disease control and elimination which is presented herein.The current global malaria elimination campaign calls for a health systems strengthening approach to provide an enabling environment for programmes in developing countries. In order to realize the benefits of this approach it is vital to provide adequate investment in the 'people' component of health systems and understand the multi-level factors that influence their participation. The challenges of strengthening this component of health systems are discussed, as is the importance of ensuring that current global malaria elimination efforts do not derail renewed momentum towards the comprehensive primary health care approach. It is recommended that the application of the results of this systematic review be considered for other diseases of poverty in order to harmonize efforts at building 'competent communities' for communicable disease control and optimising health system effectiveness